The CBI launched a report at the end of last year forecasting the future of the UK business arena for the next ten years.  What does that mean for project management?  I read The Shape of Business – The Next 10 Years and decided to map my predictions for the future of project management based on the CBI’s analysis.

The CBI represents about a third of the private sector workforce in Britain, and their report identifies four areas where fresh approaches will develop as a result of the recent downturn:

• Capital and investment
• Workforce
• Sustainability and governance
• Organisation and location.

Let’s look at each of those in turn.

Capital and investment

“Businesses want to adapt to a harsher credit climate by finding new sources of funding,” says Richard Lambert, CBI Director General.  Nearly 70% of those surveyed (mostly CEOs and Chairs) said that they expect no improvement in credit availability this year and are looking at alternative models for business financing including equity, bond issuance and reducing their reliance on bank debt.  Supply chain finance and sovereign wealth funds will be more important sources of funding.  I know, I started with the most interesting topic first.

Impact on project management

Less money means fewer projects.  However, there will be more emphasis on doing the right projects, so the role of the Portfolio office will evolve.  We’ll be focused on delivering projects with high return on investment.  There will also be a spotlight on risk management; mitigating serious risks more effectively to give projects a better chance of success.  Given the economic ups and downs it’s going to be hard to plan for the long term, so if you are working on projects or programmes spanning several years, expect lots of changes in strategy.

Workforce

The next 10 years will bring further evolutions in the flexible workforce.  CBI is predicting that for some companies that will mean a smaller core group of employees supported by a larger ‘flexiforce’ as required.  There will be more emphasis on collaboration, flexibility and return on investment for training.

Impact on project management

We mostly work collaboratively anyway, so increasing that shouldn’t have any negative impact on project managers.  We will have to come up with great strategies for managing non-colocated teams as travelling lots will be discouraged.  However, the market for contract project managers could increase to supplement companies having smaller central pools of employed project managers.  Oh, and we’ll all work until we are really old, so we’ll be managing teams with a much wider age range than before.

Sustainability and governance

Being accountable is part of what CBI calls ‘the new licence to operate’.  Companies will have to demonstrate that they are good corporate citizens with strong ethics as employees become more choosy about who they will work for.  And there will be more governance.  Lovely.

Impact on project management

Green projects are already on the radar for many of us, as a discussion topic if not in actual delivery terms.  The environmental impact of projects will become our responsibility, and Greg Balestro spoke about this at the PMI Congress last October.  We’ll be doing things in a low-carbon way, but given that our government can’t afford to promote green strategies in the way it might have done two years ago (and consumers don’t have a lot of money to invest in doing things greenly any more) businesses might end up taking a hit from the green agenda – more green projects for us.  We already have various codes of ethics depending on which association you are affiliated to.  Being good will become part of companies’ brands, and so it should be an extension of your personal brand.  Don’t get me started on governance…

Organisation and location

“Firms looking to reduce risk and acknowledge their interdependence are seeking more collaborative ways of working through partnerships and joint ventures,” says Lambert.  Businesses will work on a collaborative partnership model with a wide range of partners, and the CBI includes universities in that.  Managing the supply chain will become more complicated.  Over 75% of respondents said that they were concerned about supply chains failing as key suppliers collapse or can’t get funding.  This means we’ll all have to work more closely together as the risk of supply chain failure will be a significant decision-making factor.

Impact on project management

Projects that generate IP could be affected as companies will rely on protecting their IP assets if they are going to work more closely with partners.  We’ll also end up requiring better supplier management skills.  PRINCE2 assumes a project environment with one senior supplier, but 30% of respondents said they would increase the number of suppliers they work with – we’ll have to juggle multiple supplier relationships on the project team.

What do you think the next 10 years holds for project management?

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